I'm playing the guessing game because I believe the FreedomBox will happen (more than 0.9 probability within 5 years). We have the hardware and most of the software. The final set-up should take a year or so, then we just have to sell that. And selling will be easy. Who wouldn't want a bit of personal cloud at home? We don't even need to overthrow Microsoft, or eradicate Windows. No coercion is required, except with some ISPs.

The Chinese government collapsing within 5 years? That takes a revolution. I assign less than 0.1 probability to that.