Deaths lag by three weeks.

dredmorbius · on March 29, 2020

...the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

gvjddbnvdrbv · on March 29, 2020

You are missing the 6 day incubation period.

dredmorbius · on March 29, 2020

Fair point.

Not to dispute, but to note the critical importance of definitions and measurement ability, this raises a few other points:

- Are we comparing and rating deaths vs. cases on time of viable exposure or first clinically detectable presentation?

- What is the earliest an infection is reliably detectable?

- At what point during incubation is a personnthemselves infectuous?

Probably others.

I'm pretty certain based on past experiences that these discussions are being had among medical and epidemiological circles.

At what point though is the question one of failing to achieve potentially complete coverage versus fundamental limits of detection?

That said, deaths lagging exposures by ~20 days is valid. Thank you.