Something feels wrong here. But I am just a clueless programmer and armchair expert. A thing I see is that you shouldn't use CFR this way because the CFR is only known after the end of the pandemic. Hoever I agree with the conclusion that the number of cases is not reliable, but not with the way you deduct this.
If I'm understanding you, that's largely the point I'm making. Italy's apparent anomolously high CFR is all but certainly a measurement artefact and not a clinical actual ground truth.
The deviation itself, though, points to insufficient monitoring rather than exceptional lethality. You cannot just look at apparent CFR and without question.
