I agree with everything you wrote, but couldn't resist adding: being first is good, being great is better, but being lucky is best. After a certain point entrepreneurs have to humble themselves down and accept the fact that sheer luck, or more scientifically, factors that you can't predict or model, play a huge role in the outcome. I'd say most people are overanalyzing this, there's no point in trying to analyze chaos, unless you're literally a theoretical physicist trying to predict an orbit somewhere.