Heh.. every time I read one of these 30 somethings founders (as I am) striking it rich on some buy out deal etc.. I think to myself, why the f%$k am I still cranking behind this desk? Then I return to work the next day oblivious and pretty much content sigh...
These articles don't tell you about the 30-somethings that burned their life savings chasing an idea and not getting the same result. Ultimately, the narrative that success is directly the result of hustle isn't necessarily true.
The math is pretty clear that 75% of the time, you will fail.
> There is recent research by Harvard University’s Shikhar Ghosh that three out of every four venture-backed firms fail, which was newsworthy because the failure rate was higher than normally cited by the venture capital industry.
If you manage to get VC funding, you're still going to fail three times out of four. But, that assumes you're one of the 8.3% of companies reviewed by a VC firm that gets funding.
What percentage of nascent companies don't even get so far as a warm intro to a VC?
> The good news: Because few meaningful statistics exist about small, privately held companies, the astronomical business-failure rates that we hear quoted so often tend to be misleading. For instance, a survey done by the U.S. Commerce Dept. says that of every 10 small businesses, 7 will survive their first year, 3 will still be going after 3 years, and only 2 will remain after 5 years.
> Most of us know through experience, however, that a lot of independent businesses do indeed close their doors quickly -- with certain industries more prone to see startups fold than others. Figures compiled by the National Restaurant Assn., for example, show that 80% of independently owned eateries fail within their first two years, for instance.
It doesn't seem to be much worse/different for non-VC. Just smaller scales.
The worst that happens is you gain entrepreneurial skills and lose a few thousand dollars in the process. SMB's have always had these odd's for hundreds of years. It really depends on what you value: freedom or perceived security.
What HN and talking to entrepreneur friends has taught me is that you should start a company if your driver is creating something of your own and the fact that you'd just enjoy the work.
Doing it just for money doesn't make sense. There are easier ways to get rich.
Banking or management consulting? If you're willing to put up with insane hours and no life, it's not hard to get to the point where you're earning over $1M/yr in salary + bonus. And it's low risk. If you're smart enough and put in the time, that kind of compensation can almost be guaranteed.
Because some of us don't burn with firey passion in every cell of our being for whatever idea it is that we're grinding on at present, and that's OK. It's REALLY REALLY HARD to get to the point where your idea goes from concept to reality to buy-out and there's many, many, many sleepless nights and stressful days to get there. Some people have that burning drive, and some people don't, and neither one is better than the other. Every passionate entrepreneur needs employees, and employees need people to work for and products they want to contribute to. Some of us are entrepreneurs, and some of us are employees.
Are you of the opinion that everything is luck? I certainly see that bandied about quite a bit. As an optional follow-up, if you do believe it all comes down to luck, do you also believe that is fundamentally unfair?
> Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity
I suppose this depends on the definition of luck. Unfair, no. Lebron James was born with talents ~nobody else has been born with. Was he lucky? Yes, in that he didn't have a say in the matter. Did he work hard? Yes.
You're asking a very complicated question, which as it turns out, is a very fun thought experiment.
This is basically it. Don't get me wrong, it can take a lot talent and hard work to hit it big, but alongside that that talent is a large series of fortunate events (luck) that helped that person achieve their goal, whether it happened to be timing, networking, etc.
